Sunday, 12 July 2009
Signal failure?
Assuming that there is an element of relevance in yesterday's blog posting - Mass market mood swings - meaning that gambling markets could be an effective indicator of sport market activity, one therefore has to ask: are 'bricks and mortar' or 'clicks and mortar' gambling markets the most efficient of signallers? Given the ease, speed and freedom with which information is transmitted via the web, does this mean that online gambling markets are the most accurate way of predicting what will happen in sport markets? If so, there is a further question: are online services that offer a traditional form of gambling or services that take the form of betting exchanges the most accurate of predictors? Are there other fora in which large numbers of people participate that could have an impact on sport? Are bulletin boards or online chat rooms a way of making decisions or predicting the future? Would there be a large enough number of people involved in using such media? And is there any parallel here between the observations of this blog, James Surowiecki's views about crowds and what is happening with initiatives such as myfootballclub.com (http://www.myfootballclub.co.uk/)
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