The science of (sporting) rumours

Ribery to Real Madrid? Cavendish to Team Sky? Alonso for Massa? Will Nadal make the US Open? Rumours in sport are part of landscape, there are even websites devoted to them. But what is a rumour; where do rumours come from; what purpose do they serve; and what impact do they have? It seems that rumour research, some might call it rumour science, is beginning to attract the attention of several academics and commentators, for instance:

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2008/10/12/how_to_fight_a_rumor/?page=1

More specific details of the research cited in this article can be be found in a paper entitled 'Reining in rumors', by DiFonzo, Bordia and Rosnow in the following journal: Organizational Dynamics. Here is an extract:

"Rumors do not just fill up time around the water fountain. They can drain productivity, reduce profits, create stress in the workplace, or sully a company's image. Some rumors tear at a company's credibility, with both personnel and customers. Others have catapulted firms into financial disaster. It is imperative that managers know how to deal with the spread of questionable information

Generally defined, rumor is unverified information, usually of local or current interest, intended primarily for belief. In other words, rumors are propositions or allegations colored by various shades of doubt, because they are not accompanied by corroborative evidence. Thus, rumors scamper about organizations like some mischievous poltergeist, until skillful managers exorcise the allegations or the allegations vanish into thin air.

Excepting their lack of proof, rumors are similar to news. Both explain important events, pertain to people or to affairs that don't involve people, and may be positive or negative. But news is always confirmed, while rumors are, by definition, unconfirmed. The eminent sociologist, Tamotsu Shibutani, referred to rumors as "improvised news."

A second characteristic of rumors is that they spring from collective concerns. Improvised news is of interest to group members (the rumor public). That group interests motivate rumors is indicated by the close connection between rumors and collective interests. Exhibit 1 [not shown here] lists some subclasses of organizational rumors we found, along with the collective interests that spawn them. Turnover, job-security, and job-quality rumors are usually rooted in worries and ambiguities that stem from impending changes in management policy or personnel. Pecking-order rumors typically grow out of employees' doubts and insecurities about their position in a firm and their hope for a promotion. Costly-error rumors reflect concerns about damage caused by mistakes. Consumer-concern rumors usually reflect consumer fears about a company product or service.

A third characteristic of rumors is that they are intended primarily for belief, when reliable information is unavailable. Rumors, according to the forerunners of rumor research, Harvard Professors Gordon W. Allport and Leo Postman, are an "effort after meaning." They are speculations that arise to fill knowledge gaps or discrepancies. This function differentiates rumor from gossip, which is meant primarily to entertain or convey mores. Gossip is a tasty hors d'oeuvre savored at a cocktail party; rumor is a morsel hungrily eaten amid an information famine."

What relevance does this attract have for sport? Consider it in the context of Cristiano Ronaldo's transfer from Manchester United to Real Madrid, the exchange of £80 million, the general acceptance across football that United therefore have money to spend, and Sir Alex Ferguson's repeated denials that the club won't be spending any more money on players this summer. To what extent would an understanding of the science of rumours help fans, players, club officials, commercial partners and the media get to grips with what is going on in this summer's player transfer market?